Logan traffic may rise 73% by 2020
Federal study expects even faster growth at Manchester, Portland
By Peter J. Howe, Boston Globe, 10/04/2006
A major federal study being released today projects that Logan International Airport will handle 73 percent more passengers in 2020 than it did in 2004.
And New England's nine other major airports, taken as a group, will see passenger traffic increase by an equivalent amount, according to the study.
But two of the nine are apt to experience more dramatic growth: Manchester Boston Regional, in New Hampshire, and Portland International Jetport, in Maine, will each see their passenger loads increase by more than 85 percent in the next 14 years, the study said.
The conclusions, years in the making, are from the New England Regional Airport System Plan. Developed by a team led by the Federal Aviation Administration, it projects that the region's airports could handle about 76 million passengers in 2020, up from 42.9 million in 2004.
Logan alone will probably be serving about 42.4 million passengers in 2020. Currently, the figure is about 27 million annually.
In the 1980s and 1990s, projections about booming growth at Logan led to discussion about building a second major airport in Eastern Massachusetts -- an idea that was wildly unpopular.
Today, federal and regional planners think Logan and the nine other major airports could handle the load in 2020 -- with good planning and continued efforts to spread the traffic around.
The report doesn't spell out how Logan could accommodate such a big increase. But it does predict that by 2020, there will be enough travelers to support two more Logan Express park-and-ride bus routes, from the Dedham-Westwood and Bedford-Lexington areas. Logan Express now operates from Braintree, Framingham, Peabody, and Woburn.
This month, Logan is opening a long-planned sixth runway, but only for small planes taking off and landing over Boston Harbor.
Airport officials also hope to build a $50 million taxiway by 2010 that they say would improve safety and reduce airfield congestion.
But even with those changes, one veteran foe of Logan's expansion plans said he can't imagine how the airport could handle such growth without huge increases in jet noise and pollution in neighborhoods that have battled the Massachusetts Port Authority for five decades.
``Those numbers are a staggering, ominous projection, and I just don't think Logan can physically handle those numbers," said John A. Vitagliano, a Winthrop activist who served 14 years on the board of Massport, which runs Logan.
Massport's strategic projects director, Betty Desrosiers, said that thanks to a nearly complete $4 billion modernization of Logan, ``future growth at Boston will be accommodated with technical airside improvements and management of the airway system."
The study assumes that each year New England's population grows 0.3 percent, personal incomes rise 1.6 percent, and average air fares fall 1.2 percent. Passenger growth could lag or exceed the predictions if those numbers turn out to be different.
The report also assumes that demand for air travel will remain strong in New England.
On average, New Englanders travel 2.5 times per year, versus the national average of 1.4. Factors that account for that include the region's location at a far corner of the country and above-average affluence. In addition, many people fly to the area to visit its many tourist attractions and academic institutions.